camcarlson

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Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category

‘Shall Issue’ gives way to ‘May Issue’

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Reality check: to quote Andrew Sullivan, we currently live “in an era with the most expansive interpretation of the Second Amendment by the Supreme Court in history and unprecedented levels of gun sales.”

Remember that, as well as the graph below, the next time someone claims the government is trying to take away our guns.

image001-carry

Written by camcarlson

March 8, 2014 at 5:52 PM

Posted in Politics

Heirs to the Chief

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John Tyler was born March 29, 1790, one year after the US Constitution was ratified and George Washington became president. He served as the 10th President, between 1841 and 1845. And somehow I just learned a short time ago that two of his grandchildren, born over 130 years after he was, are still alive!!?!

John Tyler had 15 children (the most of any president) with two wives; his son Lyon Gardiner Tyler was born in 1853, when John was 63 years old.

Lyon had six children with two wives; his son Lyon Gardiner Tyler Jr was born in 1924 (when Lyon was 72) and Harrison Ruffin Tyler was born in 1928 (when Lyon was 75). Both Lyon and Harrison are still alive as of last year.

 

Written by camcarlson

March 5, 2014 at 9:19 PM

Million Dollar Signature

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Obama nominated Jacob Lew, his chief of staff, to become the next Treasury Secretary. I just saw what his signature looks like. This is noteworthy as the Treasury Secretary’s signature appears on all printed currency.

104716-jacob-lew

Written by camcarlson

January 13, 2013 at 1:01 AM

Posted in Politics

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2012 Election Eve

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At this point I am cautiously optimistic that Obama will win re-election tomorrow. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight gives Obama an 86.3% chance of winning [update — it’s now 92.2%], tantamount to an NFL team leading by a field goal with a minute or so left in the fourth quarter. Romney could still pull off a win, but he kinda ran out of time to take the lead in several swing states he needs to clench 271 electoral votes. The momentum seems to be with Obama at this point, perhaps due in part to a particular “October surprise” of a meteorological nature.

Anyway.

I hate standing in line on Election Day. I hate listening to people pontificate on why their candidate is so good and (more often) why the opponent is [insert vulgarities]. I hate holding in my vitriol for these pompous blowhards, even if they happen to be voting for the same person I am.

So two weeks ago I went to the courthouse and voted early. Five minutes to park my car, walk in, head towards the counter of the elections office, ask for a ballot, fill out a form, take my ballot to the little table with the security screen, fill in some ovals, put the ballot in the security envelope, hand it back to the clerk and leave. Why don’t more people vote early?

Written by camcarlson

November 5, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Posted in Politics

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Midnight movie massacre & the right to bear arms

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I’m very grateful that Alex, who moved to Aurora last summer, was not at the midnight screening of “The Dark Knight Rises” last night.

An excerpt from Roger Ebert’s op-ed in today’s NYT:

I’m not sure there is an easy link between movies and gun violence. I think the link is between the violence and the publicity. Those like James Holmes, who feel the need to arm themselves, may also feel a deep, inchoate insecurity and a need for validation.

……….

That James Holmes is insane, few may doubt. Our gun laws are also insane, but many refuse to make the connection. The United States is one of few developed nations that accepts the notion of firearms in public hands. In theory, the citizenry needs to defend itself. Not a single person at the Aurora, Colo., theater shot back, but the theory will still be defended.

……….

Immediately after a shooting last month in the food court of the Eaton Centre mall in Toronto, a young woman named Jessica Ghawi posted a blog entry. Three minutes before a gunman opened fire, she had been seated at the exact place he fired from.

“I was shown how fragile life was,” she wrote. “I saw the terror on bystanders’ faces. I saw the victims of a senseless crime. I saw lives change. I was reminded that we don’t know when or where our time on Earth will end. When or where we will breathe our last breath.”

This same woman was one of the fatalities at the midnight screening in Aurora. The circle of madness is closing.

Written by camcarlson

July 20, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Personal & Public Debt

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[Prepare for a rant…] I’ve seen an online petition on Facebook and other sites arguing in favor of forgiving the nation’s student loan debt, which is currently around a trillion dollars (making it higher than all outstanding credit card debt). My gut reaction is that this is a horrible idea.

Granted, I am one of those college graduates with outstanding student loans, and I could definitely find better uses for my income instead of handing it over to the federal government. But you know what? That’s the deal I made way back in the summer of 1999, before I began my first semester of college: I would receive a quality education in exchange for paying tuition plus interest when I graduated. I knew the burden I was taking upon myself and I agreed to it. I signed on the dotted line. And I’ve been dutifully paying it back over the past eight years, and am very close to paying it off (I seem to be perpetually three months away, but trust me, at this point I could cut a check from my savings account and wipe the loans out, if I didn’t care about my rainy-day fund).

I live within my means. I have a credit card (through Veridian) but only use it to pay for groceries and gas and other monthly expenses, and I pay off the balance every week, before interest can accumulate. Aside from the student loans and an auto loan for $1000 I took out in 2001 (and which was paid off in 2 months), I don’t borrow money. If I want something, I save my money until I can afford it. Thankfully, ever since adopting a lifestyle philosophy centered around simplicity and minimalism, it’s rare when I feel the need to buy something anyway. If I do, I obey the “one in, one out” rule I set for myself, so my apartment doesn’t become cluttered with junk I don’t really need in my life. Luckily, my monthly loan payments are less than 10% of my discretionary income.

All this is to say I have been faithful in paying back my student loans rather than being the dutiful consumer American capitalism wants me to be. I am going to feel very good when I finally pay off my loans because I will have done so all on my own, without the assistance of anyone. I took on this obligation and I am determined to see it through. It’s my moral responsibility to repay this obligation, as it should be for every college graduate.

I think that’s what chaps my hide about this signon.org petition to waive student loan debt. With very few exceptions, college students knew the terms of the loans they were taking out. These loans are totally voluntary!! Now they have a degree, which they get to keep for life, but they want out of their end of the deal. Their main argument centers around the supposed stimulus such a waiver would have on the economy:

Forgiving the student loan debt of all Americans will have an immediate stimulative effect on our economy. With the stroke of the President’s pen, millions of Americans would suddenly have hundreds, or in some cases, thousands of extra dollars in their pockets each and every month with which to spend on ailing sectors of the economy. As consumer spending increases, businesses will begin to hire, jobs will be created and a new era of innovation, entrepreneurship and prosperity will be ushered in for all.

Freakonomics points out a few reasons why this argument doesn’t hold water:

If we are going to give money away, why on earth would we give it to college grads? This is the one group who we know typically have high incomes, and who have enjoyed income growth over the past four decades.  The group who has been hurt over the past few decades is high school dropouts. … If you want stimulus, you get more bang-for-your-buck if you give extra dollars to folks who are most likely to spend each dollar. Imagine what would happen if you forgave $50,000 in debt. How much of that would get spent in the next month or year? Probably just a couple of grand (if that). Much of it would go into the bank. But give $1,000 to each of 50 poor people, and nearly all of it will get spent, yielding a larger stimulus. … Why give money to college grads rather than the 15% of the population in poverty?

College graduates have demonstrated they have the skills and knowledge needed to succeed in life. The last thing they need is a bailout. I’m sorry if the economy isn’t providing enough job opportunities, but bailing them out won’t change that. And from a moral standpoint, those living at or below the poverty line need government assistance more than college graduates (though I’d still prefer to provide assistance programs rather than a simple handout).

Of course, all this says nothing about how profitable student loans are to the federal government:

According to the scrupulously nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, $37 billion will flow IN to Treasury from student loans made this fiscal year … Treasury can borrow money at 0.5% or less, and lends it to students at 3.4%.   Administrative costs are well below 1%. Prepayment risk is minimal; repayment stretches over many, many years, and the yield spread just keeps on coming.  Interest rate risk is also minimal, given that Treasury can issue debt in a range of maturities.

This video does a good job of recapping some of the arguments against student loan bailouts mentioned and linked to above:

>>>>><<<<<

As bad as student loan debt may be, it’s nowhere near the moronic level held by our federal government, currently at $15.7 trillion.

Only one time in our nation’s history have we ever been debt-free. That was during the tenure of Andrew Jackson’s presidency:

In Jackson’s mind, debt was “a moral failing,” Brands says. “And the idea you could somehow acquire stuff through debt almost seemed like black magic.”

So Jackson decided to pay off the debt.

To do that, he took advantage of a huge real-estate bubble that was raging in the Western U.S. The federal government owned a lot of Western land — and Jackson started selling it off.

He was also ruthless on the budget. He blocked every spending bill he could.

When Jackson took office [in 1829], the national debt was about $58 million. Six years later, it was all gone. Paid off. And the government was actually running a surplus, taking in more money than it was spending.

An unreleased government report written in 2000 predicted we could have potentially paid off all national debt by 2012. But it’s unlikely America will ever be debt-free again, for the simple fact that much of our economy (as well as the global financial system as a whole) now depends on the issuance of Treasury bills:

Banks buy hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth, because they’re a safe place to park money. Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rate on U.S. treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve — our central bank — buys and sells Treasury bonds all the time, in an effort to keep the economy on track.

I never would have guessed having no debt (for the country) could be a bad thing. But I still would prefer to have “just a little” debt to the amount we have now.

Written by camcarlson

June 18, 2012 at 6:42 PM

2012 GOP primaries Ctd

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At this point, Romney is all but assured the GOP nomination. But it’s rather telling that he hasn’t been able to close the deal yet:

Projecting moderation while professing extremism is quite a trick, and Romney may perhaps grasp the brass ring. But he makes everyone uneasy.  Moderate Republican voters, of whom there may be more than meet the eye, may worry that President Romney will be captive to a GOP Congress beholden to the base.  Tea Party types may worry that he’ll shake the Etch-A-Sketch again when dancing to a different piper, the general electorate and/or a divided Congress. No one, in any case, likes a liar, and people across the political spectrum know that Romney lies from sunup to sundown. Democrats know that nothing he says about Obama is true; conservatives know that nothing he says about his past positions and actions is true; and moderates know, or should know, that he’s betrayed them to the base.

My early hunch tells me that, as long as the economy continues to improve, Romney is going to lose to Obama in November.

[h/t: xpostfactiod, Texts from Hillary]

Written by camcarlson

April 8, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Posted in Politics

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